The A00 pure electric passenger vehicle that once occupied more than 50% of the new energy passenger car market will probably go down the altar next year.
The recent rumors of the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy program, with cruising range, battery pack energy density, 100 kilometers power consumption, and other indicators to encourage high-end models. According to the first electric statistics, the new subsidy program technical indicators to measure the market 7 popular A00 models, more than half of the models will be 0 subsidies (see chart 1).
"A nail cream, B honey", in 2018 subsidies abruptly shrink or even zero circumstances, A00 models can also suppress the low-speed electric car prices "ceiling" do? What are the development trends of the high-end models of low-speed electric vehicles? This article will analyze the above issues in detail.
A00-level vehicle subsidies will be substantially reduced or even zero subsidies
Looking at only one subsidy indicator for the endurance period, the national compensation for models with 150-200 km will be reduced from 20,000 in 2017 to 10,000. There will be no subsidy below 150 km. If cross-counting multiple indicators, the market will be a variety of hot models such as Beiqi EC180, Zhidou D2, Chery eQ1, Zotye E200, etc. will be 0 subsidies in 2018.
Chart 1
For vehicles with a battery life of 150 kilometers or less, the country’s supplemental subsidies will be reduced by 54,000 yuan, and 150-200 kilometers will be reduced by 15,000 yuan. In addition, according to the first electric understanding, in 2018, new energy subsidies will be cancelled in some regions, which will further reduce the amount of subsidy for A00-class vehicles, or directly affect the terminal selling price. Taking the price of the mainstream A00-class models in 2017 and the reduced subsidy, the price of A00-class models in 2018 will be far from the sales range of 50,000-60,000 yuan.
However, high-speed car manufacturers may not be far from the market of large-scale third- and fourth-tier cities. The head of Beiqi said that the Beiqi EC series will launch EC200 and EC280 next year, and reduce costs through the cooperation of upstream and downstream industrial chains. The price increase of EC series will increase. Than the 2017 price or increase 5000-10000 yuan. Jianghuai, Jiangling, and other responsible persons also stated that in addition to the adjustment of model technical standards in conjunction with national policies, they will further develop in A00 and A0 markets.
2017 A00-class models cross-competitive with low-speed electric vehicles
From the point of view of travel requirements, the A00-class electric vehicle and the low-speed electric vehicle are similar in terms of micro-flexibility and economical application. The huge market space for low-speed electric vehicles and the upgrading needs of consumers have attracted many traditional car manufacturers. This not only guarantees quality and performance, but also guarantees the ups and downs on the roads. The price can be as low as 50,000 yuan under the “asylum†subsidy. Sealed the ceiling of high-end low-speed electric cars.
“The market share of Reading's high-end models in 2017 has shrunk significantly compared to 2016 and before.†Shu Xin, the general manager of Reading Motors, frankly stated at the 8th New Energy Vehicle Conference that a number of A00 models will be launched in 2017 and will be suppressed. The room for further development of low-speed electric vehicle companies, Reading high-end models of a variety of low-speed electric vehicles stagnated in the development phase, the number of product line significantly reduced.
"Some high-speed car manufacturers push products to grab the market, even the marketing model and image store also imitate the low-speed electric car manufacturers, as well as high-speed electric cars delisting when the phenomenon of low-speed car sales, the market made a mess." Shu Xin said that due to high speed Advantages of vehicle subsidies, low-speed electric vehicle companies are very passive, most of the transition 1-3 million range market, to avoid positive resistance with high-speed car manufacturers.
However, the 2018 subsidy policy is likely to rewrite this situation. The subsidy for the A00-class vehicle below 200 kilometers has dropped sharply, which has obviously slowed down the integration of high- and low-speed manufacturers' markets. This will also pull back the trend of high-speed manufacturers' prices, or form two market camps where high- and low-speed manufacturers do not cross each other.
Low-speed manufacturers actively distribute high-end models and share markets
“The market for low-speed electric vehicles is very large. Even without subsidies, manufacturers can develop well.†Wei Xueqin, chairman of the Shandong Automobile Engineering Society, said that the low-speed electric vehicle industry has been under pressure to develop, but this did not prevent the benign shuffle of the industry. After the rigorous test of 2017, Shandong's low-speed electric car manufacturers have been reduced from the original hundreds to 20, and the production concentration has become higher and higher. The cumulative output of the top five companies accounted for more than 70%.
Yu Jie, Lai Chi and other companies also indicated to the first electric movement that they are deploying high-end products for low-speed electric vehicles. From the perspective of market products, the quality and intelligence of the products have been improved. For example, the Li Chi V5 introduced by Li Chi in August was equipped with the three core technologies of the SHEV intelligent triple-core hybrid, BMS battery management system, and intelligent charging system. Yu Jie Oxygen 330 is equipped with lithium batteries, and all indicators are in line with the national standard draft technical indicators, etc., the industry layout of low-speed electric vehicles in the high-end market moves more and more frequently.
“While the driving factors of high- and low-speed electric vehicles are more sustainable, if the sustainability of the state subsidies is not strong enough and there is no continuous limit-driven purchase, what will be the market for high-speed electric vehicles? I believe that the sustainability of the purchase can determine the market’s availability. Sustainability, behind which is the demand for promotion.†Shu Xin said at the GNEV8 mini-car forum, the general public travel demand has always existed, and the consumer base is large, the low-speed electric vehicle market has a sustained strong demand.
In addition, at the GNEV8 Mini Vehicle Forum, executives from Car and Home, Reading, and Qingxing mentioned the concept and suggestions for sharing trips. They believe that the future nature of consumers' travel will return to short-distance transportation. Move from point A to point B. This also makes it easier for consumers to obtain a more convenient, high-quality, low-cost travel experience, and will also be the mainstream of future travel scenarios.
"The market for shared travel is not necessarily in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, and third- and fourth-tier cities may be more suitable." Shu Xin said that Reading is currently building a shared travel platform, and it may be implemented in 2018, and other time-sharing leases. The layout of the company is different. Reading's implementation is locked in the third and fourth line and the rural market.
This idea coincides with Yu Jie. As the industry's first to launch a shared platform, Yu Jie has already started trial running shared cars in third- and fourth-tier cities and rural areas such as Xingtai, Hebei. This may be due to long-term practice in the market consensus of the manufacturers, because the public transport infrastructure in the third and fourth tier cities and rural markets is poor compared to the first and second tier cities. There are few bus stops, long trips, urban-rural distances, and county and township distances. All of these make the settlement of travel demand in the third, fourth, and rural consumer groups more urgent.
“The relatively large exports of low-speed electric vehicles may be shared in the travel field because if everyone is in the same conditions, low-speed vehicles are more in line with the user’s travel standards, and high-speed cars cannot compete with low-speed vehicles.†Institute of Coastal Development, Nankai University Dean Liu Gang believes that many characteristics of low-speed electric vehicles are suitable for sharing travel, and low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers can focus on deploying this market.
The implementation of new energy subsidies for slope withdrawal in 2018 will inevitably cause changes in the market, but for the low-speed electric vehicle market, the benefits will be even more, coupled with the introduction of low-speed electric vehicles near the national standard (Wei Xueqin predicts the first quarter of 2018 or the introduction in April), low speed The electric vehicle industry can not only let go of the high-end market, but also the low-end market will usher in better development with the landing of the national standard. We may also look forward to the third-and fourth-line and rural hot-junior time-sharing leasing market next year because cars and homes, Yu Jie, Reding, etc. have already laid out or intentionally laid out the field.
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