The most stringent fourth stage fuel consumption standard at this stage will be implemented on January 1, 2016. According to national requirements, by 2020, the fuel limit of vehicle enterprises should be reduced from 6.9L/100km in 2015 to 5.0L/100km, with an average annual decline of 6.2%. The 2015 Annual Report on the Development of China's Passenger Car Fuel Consumption (hereinafter referred to as the “Reportâ€) issued by the Energy and Transportation Innovation Center (iCET) of the third-party think tank, shows that to achieve the above objectives, in terms of models, the bicycle limit is higher. Previously tightened by 20%, and the target value has also been reduced by 30% to 40%, which means that currently 1/4 new car models will face elimination if they do not upgrade their technology.
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1/4 new models or face elimination pressure
Energy saving and emission reduction has become a common trend in the world automotive industry. At the Paris Climate Conference held not long ago, countries have reached agreement on reducing carbon dioxide and even achieving zero net emissions of greenhouse gases. As an important source of carbon dioxide emissions, the energy-saving and emission reduction of the automotive industry has become the direction of joint efforts of all countries.
The above report shows that China has implemented the fuel economy standard for passenger cars since July 2005, but the average fuel consumption of car companies has dropped by 1L/100km in the eight years from 2006 to 2014, with an average annual decline of only 2 %. Excluding the accounting impact of new energy vehicles, the average national passenger car fuel consumption in 2014 was 7.22L/100km, down only 1.5% year-on-year, and the fuel economy improvement was small, while the fuel consumption of self-owned brands even increased. 3%.
As early as the beginning of this year, the “Annual Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises in 2014†released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that 25 out of 91 domestic passenger car companies did not meet the standard, 3 more than in 2013; 29 imports Ten of the car companies failed to meet the standard, a decrease from the 2013 level. Among them, there are many large state-owned car companies such as BAIC Group and FAW Group.
Prior to this, Zeng Zhiling, general manager of LMC Automotive Market Consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the "First Financial Daily" reporter that it is very difficult for all enterprises to achieve the above energy-saving goals for 2020. challenge. In this context, car companies are trying their best to achieve their goals. According to the report, in the next five years, the bicycle limit for the model is 20% stronger than before, and the target value is also reduced by 30% to 40%. If the vehicle enterprise does not upgrade the technology, currently 1/4 New car models will face elimination.
In this context, joint venture car companies have been working on the development and deployment of small displacement turbocharged engines many years ago. In the autonomous field, SAIC has also been committed to the development of MGE series, SGE series direct injection engines, TST 6-speed, 7-speed dual-clutch transmissions, and the development of traditional high-efficiency power technologies such as the new generation engine start-stop system. At present, these technologies have been successively carried on various models of SAIC, such as MG Ruiteng and Roewe 360. At the same time, according to the plan, SAIC will launch a new generation of small-displacement engine SGE1.5T developed in 2017, which is more than the existing engine. The fuel consumption dropped by 7%, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers reached 5.0L. By 2020, SAIC will launch the next generation of "blue core" engines and gearboxes, with the goal of superior performance and efficiency over international competitors that have been in production for the same period.
There are also some car companies trying to use diesel to reduce fuel consumption and emissions. According to incomplete statistics, in 2002, there were only 2 diesel vehicles available in the domestic market, and now this number has grown to 86. Even so, the diesel route has been difficult to talk about in the mainstream in China, and influenced by the Volkswagen diesel car fake door, the industry believes that diesel vehicles have basically lost the foundation of large-scale development in China. An Feng, executive director of iCET, believes that “the scale of new energy vehicle promotion and advanced energy-saving equipment technology application will become the key to the 2020 goal of fuel consumption of passenger car products of 5.0L/100km.â€
New energy "virtual fire" under the fuel consumption limit
Since this year, almost all car companies have been launching new energy vehicles. Because if the fuel consumption is not up to standard, the company's new car launch and expansion plans will be affected. It is precisely because of the two-way drive of policy pressure and government support that China's new energy market is extremely hot. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first 11 months, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles totaled 279,200 units, a four-fold increase over the same period last year. At the same time, data from the National Federation of Passengers Association showed that the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the first 11 months had reached 139,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.4 times. In this development, China will surpass the United States and become the world's largest new energy market.
However, while China's new energy vehicles are becoming bigger, they are really stronger. From the perspective of industrial competition, whether the new energy technology reserves of automobile companies have the strength of “curving overtaking†remains to be seen.
Prior to this, Zuo Yanan, former chairman of the Jianghuai Automobile Group, pointed out sharply that at present, the new energy vehicle products represented by electric vehicles are not good if they are measured in the international market; at the same time, he believes that Some of the companies he has contacted, in the field of electric vehicles, lack high-end strategy and overall strategy, including technical routes, product development and capacity building, etc., lacking a complete system design and planning.
From the perspective of market sales, although there are dozens of new energy vehicle products currently on the market, they are mainly concentrated in the A00 and A0 markets. According to data from the National Federation, in the first nine months of this year, A00 And the sales of A0-class pure electric vehicles reached 30,800 and 17,100 respectively, an increase of 73% and 818%. Correspondingly, the sales of Class A and Class B vehicles were only 5,462 and 189 vehicles. In the plug-in hybrid field with high technical content, only a few models such as BYD Qin and SAIC Roewe e550 are available. In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Federation of Trade Associations, "At present, more new energy vehicles are still taking the old road of their own brands and relying on cost-effectiveness to win."
Although low prices do not necessarily result in low quality, there are indeed many problems with the use of most pure electric vehicles. For example, in order to get government subsidies, many car companies quickly launch new energy vehicles without sufficient technical accumulation, and directly use the traditional fuel vehicles to “renovateâ€, which makes the vehicles have potential safety hazards. Taking the battery as an example, since the battery of most models does not meet the IP67 standard, the dustproof and waterproof capability is weak, and it is easy to cause a short circuit of the battery, which affects the safety of use. In addition, due to the lack of an effective BMS battery management system, the actual cruising range of many models and the calibration of the cruising range are very different, and the battery attenuation problem can not be controlled.
Under the pressure of fuel consumption limit, many car companies only use new energy as a way to relieve the pressure of fuel consumption. Therefore, it is difficult to have initiative in investment and R&D. Zuo Yanan believes that the important reasons for the above phenomenon are: First, the traditional car is selling well, although it is slightly growth, but there is no negative growth. Second, when the national policy is adjusted in the direction of industrial transformation and upgrading, the pressure on the enterprise is not enough. If the pressure is high, the action may be faster.
However, in the long run, new energy has become the future direction of the automotive industry. At this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, Wang Xiaoqiu, general manager of SAIC passenger cars, made the above judgment on the development direction of new energy vehicles. He stressed that "SAIC puts new energy in the first place, not only to meet the country's requirements for the overall fuel consumption of 5L/100km in 2020, but more importantly, we believe that the future of new energy vehicles is an irreversible trend, to 2025. In the year, new energy will become the mainstream of future power."
Therefore, as early as 7 years ago, SAIC was involved in the research and development of new energy vehicles, investing more than 6 billion yuan, becoming an autonomous vehicle with leading technology and independent intellectual property rights in the three technical fields of pure electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell. Enterprise, and mastered the "battery, electric drive, electronic control" of the three core technology. It is understood that SAC's self-developed EDU-based plug-in hybrid technology can already be side by side with the mainstream mainstream hybrid technologies such as Toyota THS and GM VoltC; and because of the confidence in the independent BMS battery management system, SAIC is also The industry is the first to promise the market that its battery will not decay more than 20% for 5 years or 100,000 kilometers. Last year, SAIC set up a forward-looking technology department, focusing on cross-border technologies such as new energy, new materials, and smart interconnection. According to the plan, in the next five years, it will invest more than 20 billion yuan, and gradually launch 6 new new energy vehicles, covering 100,000 to 250,000 mainstream market segments, and achieving full coverage from A00 to B+ and even SUV.
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