Environmental protection raises environmental protection “butterfly effect”

The most stringent environmental protection and new policies in history were introduced at a rapid pace, putting pressure on the six major industries such as thermal power and steel. Thermal power companies hope to improve the supporting subsidy policy so that the policy and the enterprise's affordability can reach a balance and the company will have greater enthusiasm.

The “newest in history” emission reduction New Deal promulgated a new wave of energy consumption in the six major industries such as thermal power and steel.

On February 19, the MEP Standing Conference made it clear that the scope of the original key monitoring will be extended to 47 prefecture-level and above cities in 19 provinces. The core is to implement air pollutants in six heavily polluting industries such as thermal power, steel and petrochemical. Emission limit order.

This is interpreted as the “toughest in history” emission reduction policy, and it also indicates that the pollution costs of related companies will increase significantly. This policy has caused many companies to feel a tremendous pressure suddenly.

A business person stated that only when the policy and the enterprise's affordability reach a certain balance can the company's determination to desulfurize and sell out be “not compromised”.

When the original energy-consuming big households suffer from how to absorb the rising cost pressures, hundreds of billions of business opportunities have erupted in the related fields of desulfurization and denitrification. The industry believes that in this battle of energy saving and consumption reduction, the kind of high-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects of the past will gradually retreat, and new industries will also be born.

The “most stringent” new pollution control policy is different from previous policies. The control of air pollution control is more severe.

Although the focus is still on strict control of desulphurization, denitrification, and smoke and dust, according to the reporter's understanding, in the thermal power industry that has issued special emission limits, the original coal-fired generating units have a smoke emission limit of 30 mg/m3. The special emission limit is 20 mg/m3.

At the same time, specific to new coal-fired boilers, the national standard for most areas of the country is sulfur dioxide 100 mg/m3, but special emission limits are tightened to 50 mg/m3.

Judging from the execution time, the implementation deadline for new projects is much earlier. The Ministry of Environmental Protection requires that from March 1 onwards, newly accepted thermal power projects and iron and steel environmental assessment projects will implement special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants; projects such as petrochemical, chemical and coal-fired industrial boilers will be implemented after the relevant standards are clearly defined.

At the same time, as far as the monitoring scope is concerned, different cities, including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and the Yangtze River Delta, are different from the key controlled areas included in some cities. Nine cities in the Pearl River Delta are included in the key controlled areas.

Because the special emission limits are in line with the international advanced level, in fact, the strict restriction of emission reduction policies is behind the reality of high domestic energy consumption and high pollution.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in the second half of 2012, total sulfur dioxide emissions in China were 22.17 million tons in 2011, industrial sources accounted for 2016.5 million tons, and total nitrogen oxide emissions were 24.043 million tons, 5.74 more than in 2010. %.

Earlier, Chai Fahe, deputy dean of the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, disclosed that “In recent years, the data released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection indicates that industrial sources are still the major source of China’s air pollutants, especially smoke and dust.”

Industry experts believe that the special emission limits for the six heavily polluting industries are at the right time.

Especially from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the haze that lasted for many days in most parts of the north irritated the sensitive nerves of people from all walks of life and caused a resurgence of energy conservation and environmental protection.

The reporter heard more voices that people in the industry expressed great support for the new version of environmental protection. Research institutions also believe that the Ministry of Environmental Protection will implement special emission limits for air pollutants in key controlled areas and strictly control the amount of new air pollutants. It will promote industrial upgrading and technological innovation of enterprises to improve the domestic atmosphere environment.

In fact, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has repeatedly issued new regulations for environmental governance. However, this time the New Deal was issued with more stringent regulations. This is the latest air pollution control plan following the 12th Five-Year Plan for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in Key Areas, the first comprehensive air pollution prevention plan in China at the end of last year. version.

People in the industry pointed out that the Ministry of Environmental Protection’s heavy blow will create a huge shock wave in high-energy-consuming industries.

Subsidy Policy Controversies According to the reporter's understanding, in the eyes of thermal power companies, the new environmental protection regulations introduced by the state will inevitably raise the threshold for new thermal power projects, while increasing project construction costs and operating and maintenance costs.

For many local small and medium-sized thermal power plants, replacing the original dust removal, desulfurization, and denitrification equipment can bring about much benefit to the company. In addition, the new environmental protection regulations will have a certain impact on the future selection of thermal power plants, and new projects will be developed in the suburbs and even further.

However, the country’s increasingly strict requirements on environmental protection are the general trend. Therefore, thermal power companies generally hope that the state can improve the supporting subsidy policy, so that the policy and the enterprise's affordability can reach a balance, which also makes the company have a better enthusiasm.

This concern of the enterprise may be necessary. According to Xiong Minghuan, an analyst with CCID Consulting, for the original high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting enterprises, while the state banned the use of strict restrictive measures, the other hand also encouraged them to use energy-saving environmental protection equipment to reduce Emission of pollutants. "Of course, the state encourages enterprises to carry out energy-saving and emission reductions, but also has special funding subsidies," he said.

According to the reporter’s understanding, as early as November 2011, the state increased the price of out-of-stock electricity and increased the on-grid tariff to ease the pressure on equipment reform and renovation. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a policy, and from January 1 this year, it will further expand the trial scope of the denitrification electricity price. The trial scope of denitrification electricity price will be expanded from the current coal-fired generating units in 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) to all coal-fired generating units in the country. The denitrification electricity price standard is 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is temporarily advanced by power grid companies.

In fact, the country’s determination to air governance has also become an important driving force for the development of the industry. There are a total of 13,369 key projects included in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for prevention and control of atmospheric pollution in key regions, covering electricity, steel, cement, and oil and gas recovery, with a total investment of 350 billion yuan.

According to estimates by industry insiders, the new environmental protection policy will add 2.26 million tons of sulfur dioxide emission reduction capacity per year, increase the capacity of new nitrogen oxide emission reductions by 3.59 million tons/year, and increase the particulate emission reduction capacity by 1.48 million tons/year, adding new volatility. The organic emission reduction capacity is 1.525 million tons/year.

In terms of subsidy policies, the project funds are mainly based on local investment. The central government will give appropriate support to projects that meet the investment direction. At the same time, it will implement corporate pollution control responsibilities, give full play to the market mechanism, and form a diversified investment pattern.

While the state subsidizes enterprises that implement energy conservation and consumption reduction, it is even more important that companies use resources for recycling. “At present, some companies still have relatively extensive production methods. To do this, secondary recycling of resources is a good way to save costs. For example, the recycling of sulfur dioxide emitted can now be completely achieved.” Xiong Minghuan said.

Chai Fahe argued that the increase in costs caused by the implementation of special emission limits should be resolved by the company itself. His reason is: For a long time, atmospheric pollution has brought huge health costs and consequent economic losses. It has not been fully compensated by the polluting enterprises. More people and governments are paying for companies, and now this part of the cost It's time for the company to solve it.

Exploring the BOT operating model When high-energy-consuming companies are squeezing endlessly for whom, the desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal industries derived from the new environmental protection policies are boundless, especially in the area of ​​denitrification.

Xiong Minghuan told reporters, "With regard to desulphurization and dust removal, many companies have updated their equipment in the past few years, and the future market for denitrification will be even greater."

It is understood that before 2009, China has not yet issued a mandatory policy requiring industrial enterprises to conduct denitrification treatment. Therefore, the proportion of industrial enterprises, especially thermal power plants that install denitrification equipment and adopt denitrification technology measures, is very low.

In July 2009, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the “Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Thermal Power Plants” and proposed: By 2015, all domestic thermal power generators must implement the NOx emission concentration limit standard. The introduction of this standard has promoted the rapid start of the denitrification industry. With 2015 approaching, the implementation of the policy of denitrification in thermal power companies is expected to be accelerated.

According to statistics from CCID Consulting, in 2012, the newly-installed capacity for denitrification was approximately 0.375 million kilowatts, and the installed denitrification capacity was 115.55 million kilowatts, with a total of 153 million kilowatts of new denitrification capacity. If we calculate the annual average growth rate of desulfurization capacity by 52%, it is expected that there will be more market space for denitrification in the future.

As the nitrogen oxide emission targets of cement, steel and other industries are gradually included in the scope of supervision, according to Xiong Minghuan's prediction, the three major industries of desulfurization, denitrification, and dust removal will have an output value of 150 billion yuan. Among them, there is a market of 100 billion in the area of ​​denitrification, and this will also be the place where many thermal power plants, steel mills, and cement plants need to be improved during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

More optimistic people believe that, at the policy level, “environment and implementation” will be promoted by both sides, since this year, the national coal-fired power plant flue gas denitrification will enter the concentrated outbreak period. It is expected that the installed capacity of new thermal power plants in China will reach 150 million kilowatts, and the market for flue gas denitrification that can be created can reach more than 300 billion yuan.

At present, the cost of denitrification retrofitting of thermal power plant inventory units is approximately 1.3 yuan/kWh, which means that the subsidy electricity price of 1.1 cents/kWh for inventory turbines is still unable to bridge the gap, and the existing unit denitrification technology and Construction is difficult.

In view of this, the start-up of the denitrification market for new units in the future will need to be preceded by an organic group to transform the market. It is expected that by the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, denitrification of nearly 1 billion kilowatts of thermal power units across the country will be completed on schedule and a market of 300 billion will be gradually released. With the accelerated release of the 300 billion thermal power denitrification market, related fields will also fully benefit.

With 2015 approaching, the policy of implementing denitrification treatment for thermal power companies is expected to be accelerated and the denitrification industry will form a new competitive landscape. Large-scale power groups in China account for most of the country's total installed capacity, and their affiliated denitrification enterprises will use their market advantages to benefit preferentially in the acceleration of the denitration market. However, due to lack of denitrification operation experience and lack of customer resources, it is relatively difficult for a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain franchise rights for denitrification operations.

At the same time, the denitrification industry is also exploring new operating models. Xiong Minghuan said that the domestic denitrification industry is exploring the BOT operation model. Compared with the previous EPC model and franchise operations, the BOT operation model has great advantages. "The biggest advantage is that the construction, operation and maintenance of denitrification equipment do not require the manufacturer to pay a one-time fee, but pay by installment, which can reduce the pressure on the production company itself."

Xiong Minghuan believes that the desulfurization market is a relatively mature market in the three fields of desulfurization, denitrification, and dust removal. Therefore, the space for newly installed equipment is not particularly large, and it is mainly the operation and maintenance services.

However, it is worth noting that relative to denitrification, the demand for equipment in the future is still relatively large, and for this reason there may be a phenomenon of “scratching”. Although the current denitrification market has a large-scale start-up space, but from the original experience of the desulfurization market, under the concession bidding system, the future due to low-cost bid may bring vicious competition in the market, which is still worthy of vigilance.