Only time can tell how this will happen.
Mary Meeker, known as the "Queen of the Internet," issued her new predictions about the development of technology at the D11 conference.
A year of Internet Trends Report, Mikel has become a spokesperson for new trends and new fields in technology and investment. In this "Internet Trends Report 2013" report (in English), Miquel concluded:
Benefiting from the promotion of emerging markets, the total number of global Internet users was 2.4 billion in 2012, with a growth rate of 8% year-on-year, and China ranked first.
In terms of the number of monthly independent visitors worldwide, the top three top ten websites are Google, Microsoft and Facebook. Among Chinese companies, Tencent and Baidu rank among the top ten.
In 2012, the number of global 3G users was 1.5 billion, an increase of 31% year-on-year, and the 3G penetration rate was 21%. The utilization rate of mobile devices is growing rapidly, and it is still in the early stages, and there is still room for development of 3-4 times.
Smart phone operating systems are leading the way. In 2005, Nokia Symbian accounted for about 65% of the share, and only about 5% remained in 2012. In contrast, in 2005, iOS, Android, and Windows Phone accounted for only 5% of the share. By 2012, these three major platforms accounted for more than 85% of the share.
The smartphone and tablet ecosystem is still young, and new devices such as wearable devices, driving, flying, and scanning have emerged. Shipments and users of new technology products are often 10 times that of the previous generation of mainstream technology products.
"You can run away, but there is nowhere to hide." With the rise of new mobile forces, everything about work and life is being reshaped:
People used to sing and dance at concerts, but now they shoot videos, send Twitter messages and share with friends. The digital information created and shared has increased 9 times in the past five years. People upload and share 500 million photos every day, and this number doubles every two years.
Up to 100 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute. But more videos are uploaded to Dropcam every minute than YouTube.
The voice is reborn as if it was just back on the phone. SoundCloud uploads sounds for 11 hours per minute.
Social media is developing rapidly, Facebook leads the wave, and YouTube, Twitter, Google, Pinterest, Instagram, and Tumblr are growing rapidly.
In the past 20 years, the rise of cheap and available computing has made it possible for people to access goods globally, including shared goods, and the growth of a new generation of geek entrepreneur heroes. And Zuckerberg changed the world by creating big companies like Apple, Google (Weibo) and Facebook, and the rise of social networks has allowed people to discover, create and share with each other.
"(Let's) turn passion into a career on the epic Internet palette." Mickell shouted.
Aggressive mobile growth
In the 2013 summary and predictions, the most rapid signal given by Mikel was mobile. "Socialization and communication on smartphones make American users feel real-time online, excited, curious, interesting, and productive." Mikel said so.
The first dimension of mobile Internet growth is traffic.
In the data she disclosed, mobile devices contributed only 0.9% of Internet traffic in May 2009; this share increased to 2.4% a year later; by May this year, this share had grown to 15%. It is expected that by the end of next year, this share will increase to a staggering 30%.
The data from all over the world in the past year is sufficient to prove the rapid growth of the mobile Internet. In China, in the second quarter of 2012, the percentage of Internet users using mobile phones to surpass PCs; in South Korea, in the fourth quarter of 2012, the number of users who searched on mobile phones exceeded that of PCs; in North America, 45% of Groupon group purchases went through mobile phones Completed, two years ago, this figure was less than 15%. Facebook is also a beneficiary of the mobile Internet. The mobile terminal is pushing up its user and revenue growth. In the past first quarter, revenue increased by 43%, active mobile phone users increased by 54%, ARPU increased by 15%, and mobile ARPU has grown Offset the decline in desktop ARPU.
Another dimension of mobile growth is mobile devices.
In 2012, Mikel believes that mobile device usage has grown rapidly and is still in the early stages. A year later, she still positions it at an early stage and calls it a huge (3-4 times) room for development. In 2011, the number of global 3G users was 1.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, and the 3G penetration rate was 18%. This set of numbers has been rewritten to 1.5 billion users in 2012, with a growth rate of 31% and a penetration rate of 21%.
In terms of device growth, Apple has grown rapidly in the past two years, with market share increasing 1.4-fold and Samsung expanding 7-fold. The growth rate of tablet computers is faster than that of smart phones. For example, the growth rate of the iPad is three times that of the iPhone. The tablet computer has just been released for three years.
These do not mean the end of growth. Mikel predicted that mobile traffic as a percentage of global Internet traffic will increase 1.5 times a year, and will even maintain accelerated growth.
The commercial potential from the mobile Internet has not yet been fully tapped. In 2012, the size of Internet advertising in the United States was 37 billion US dollars, while mobile advertising was only 4 billion US dollars. She believes that advertising on the Internet and mobile does not match the time users spend on the two devices. On average, every netizen spends 12% of their time on their mobile devices, and those mobile devices account for only 3% of US advertising expenditures.
Mikel said that mobile advertisers have not seen the value in smartphones and tablets. If the share of advertising expenses held by mobile devices can catch up with the share of user time they occupy, it will increase the advertising opportunities of $ 20 billion.
Learn from China
In 2012, Mikel praised the performance of American companies in the field of science and technology is very encouraging, this year this praise was given to Chinese companies.
"In terms of size and innovation, China is worth learning." Mikel emphasized.
From the total point of view, in the first quarter of 2013, the total number of iOS and Android users in China surpassed that of the United States, and Chinese users spent more time on mobile and Internet services than on TV. The figure for China is 55%, and that for the United States is 38%.
The performance of Internet companies is unprecedented. Alibaba's total merchandise volume in the fourth quarter of 2012 exceeded the sum of Amazon and eBay. JD Mall provides the same day delivery service in more than 25 cities in China, and the delivery progress of goods can be tracked and queried in real time. The number of Sina Weibo users has tripled every year, and has exceeded 530 million, and revenue has never increased to 100 million US dollars. And in Beijing air quality testing, voluntary emergency rescue, and other aspects, through users to help promote social change. It is very interesting that the taxi software that is emerging in China and encountered regulation has also been included in Mikel's PPT.
The development of Chinese Internet companies depends on huge changes in the entire Chinese economy. Over the past three decades (1980-2010), China ’s share of world GDP has been rising, from less than 5% to 15% in 2010. At the same time, the share of Europe and the United States has been declining. 30% fell to 16%, the United States fell from 25% to about 19%.
Looking forward: highly skilled immigrants
Despite the declining global share of the US GDP, Mikel made a big presentation of the prospects for highly skilled immigrants in the US. This is unprecedented in previous reports.
Currently 99% of Americans are immigrants or descendants of immigrants. According to the results of the 2010 US Census, there are 306 million immigrants or mobile descendants, and only 3 million Native Americans. The number of highly skilled immigrants is only 1% of the total population of the United States. In terms of technology, 60% of the top 25 technology companies were founded by first- and second-generation Americans.
Why publish a highly skilled immigration report? "This is a very important issue for the technology industry." she says.
As a global leader in the technology industry, it is obvious that immigrants with STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) degrees are particularly important for enhancing the vitality of technology companies. The reality is that the United States lacks highly skilled STEM employees, which even makes technology leaders think that this lack restricts their participation in competition and increases employment opportunities.
How scarce is it? According to Mikel's statistics, only five companies including IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Oracle and Qualcomm currently have 10,000 vacant positions in the United States. Most startups and technology companies simply cannot hire enough engineers to work.
The lack of scientific and technological talents cannot be alleviated by American graduates alone. Taking the computer major as an example, from 2010 to 2020, there were about 51,474 graduates with a bachelor's degree in computer science, but the current open jobs are 122,300, which is 2.4 times the number of computer science graduates.
"U.S. immigration reform is imminent, and the future development direction may be determined this year." Miquel predicted.
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