According to IHS iSuppli's China Research Service, despite the strong growth of the Chinese semiconductor market in 2010, the proportion of distributors in overall sales declined due to increased direct sales. Customers are increasingly choosing to directly contact chip suppliers to ensure reliable supply.
In 2010, China ’s semiconductor sales through distributors increased to US $ 34.4 billion, a 31.3% increase from the US $ 26.2 billion in 2009. However, the growth of the direct sales of suppliers was even more prominent, with an increase of 54%. This led distributors to reduce their share of overall semiconductor sales in 2010 from 52% in 2009 to 48%.
After a component shortage in 2010, semiconductor sellers assured supply to key customers, and since then direct sales have grown faster than distribution.
It is expected that this trend will be maintained in the future. From 2010 to 2015, the compound annual growth rate of distributors ’semiconductor sales will reach 6.1%, while the growth rate of direct sales during the same period will be 9.6%. Therefore, the proportion of distributors in total semiconductor sales in 2015 will be reduced from 47.5% in 2011 to 44%.
Figure 6 shows IHS iSuppli's forecast of semiconductor sales in China, broken down by channel.
Despite the rapid growth, last year ’s major distributors encountered severe challenges, including component shortages, extended delivery times, rising product costs, and market complexity. Due to sluggish demand in certain markets such as mobile phones and computers, sales of large distributors declined in April and May 2011. As market growth slows, distributors will continue to face difficulties in expanding sales in the next five years.
The three largest distributors: General Assembly, Avnet and Arrow Electronics, due to the implementation of mergers and acquisitions strategy, while actively developing new markets, will maintain a leading position for some time to come. Because they have a wider product line and better customer resources than small peers, these three manufacturers have strong forecasting capabilities and healthy inventory levels.
Focus on the communications field
In the past 10 years, consumer electronics has grown rapidly and scattered, making it the largest semiconductor application area for distributors. However, starting in 2011, communications will become the largest distribution application market, which includes telecommunications equipment, mobile phones, media tablets and other mobile Internet devices (MID). The higher growth rate of new products will help promote the development of the communications market.
IHS iSuppli estimates that in 2010, $ 13.8 billion in communications-related semiconductor sales was achieved through distribution channels, accounting for 55%, while the remaining 45% was achieved through direct sales. Distributors and major circuit board suppliers play an important role in the communications semiconductor supply chain because they help manufacturers with weak internal design capabilities to produce qualified products.
Semiconductor suppliers will continue to adopt a direct sales strategy in certain centralized communications industries such as telecommunications equipment. Therefore, IHS iSuppli predicts that direct sales will account for 48% of communications semiconductor sales in 2015.
The industrial and automotive electronics markets are characterized by diversification and decentralization. The higher industry growth rate and lower manufacturing concentration provide a lot of opportunities for distributors.
Due to the longer design cycle of the industrial and automotive electronics markets and the diversified customer needs, in addition to the distribution network, core chip suppliers are actively improving their design service networks. An effective service network can accelerate the time to market for manufacturers' products and lower the barriers to entry. The service network can also create more business opportunities for semiconductor suppliers.
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