After 18 consecutive months of decline, the price of TV LCD panels has finally stopped dropping since mid-October of this year, and prices have remained stable for three consecutive months in December. However, in view of many LCD panel manufacturers, the depth adjustment of the LCD panel industry may appear in the first half of 2012, the current industry's pick-up is just "warmly warm."
According to the latest research report from market research agency DisplaySearch, after the panel purchase boom in the fourth quarter of 2011, the size of its purchase panel for domestic LCD TV giants that controlled 70% of the Chinese market in January 2012 will decline by more than 40%. The newly restored panel capacity utilization rate will also drop significantly.
Sun Dongwen, vice president of Skyworth Group, told this reporter on December 13th, “At present, it is very colorful electric manufacturers’ expectation for TV shipments in 2012 to increase by more than 20%. It seems to be overoptimistic in Skyworth’s view and Skyworth has already been doing winter. Prepared."
Temporary stabilization of panel prices
The growth of LCD TVs in the Chinese market, coupled with the opening of the US Christmas market, has enabled global brand LCD TV manufacturers to begin sourcing LCD panels from September this year. This also made LCD TV panel prices stabilize from late October. Taking the 32-inch LCD panel as an example, it began to remain stable after falling to the bottom of 122 US dollars in October of this year, and even in December, the price rose to around 128 US dollars.
According to Displaysearch research report, after Mainland TV manufacturers completed the preparation for the National Day Golden Week sales peak season in September, panel makers shipped 3.94 million pieces to mainland Chinese brand manufacturers in October, a decrease of 7% from September, and 11 On a monthly basis, there was a 24% increase from the previous month. In December, although there was a 5% drop from the previous month, the panel purchasing scale in the past four months has exceeded 40% of the full year.
On December 12, Skyworth Digital released its sales data for November. Its LCD TV shipments reached 769,500 units, of which the Chinese market increased by 12% year-on-year. TCL Group's November data also showed that its LCD TV shipments reached 1.145 million units, an increase of 75.67%.
In response, Yang Dongwen told this reporter that “In fact, the growth rate of the entire Chinese market has not been so great, but the three domestic brands such as Skyworth accounted for more than 45% of the market share. As a result of increased market concentration, it was under the influence of household appliances. With the impact of the withdrawal of township and old-for-new trade policies, many consumers chose to concentrate on buying TV in the fourth quarter, which also stimulated short-term consumption."
In the growth trend of the domestic color TV industry, this year, Samsung, Chi Mei, LGD, and AUO are actively adjusting their respective capacity utilization to win more orders. In the third quarter of this year, the utilization rate of Chi Mei and AUO fell to the bottom of 65%, and began to increase dramatically in September. Currently, Chimei's production rate has increased to 80%, and Samsung and LGD have increased to nearly 90%.
As the most important supplier of LCD panels in mainland China, Chi Mei not only occupied 31% of the centralized procurement of color TV manufacturers in October this year, but also increased its shipment target by 65% ​​in November this year.
Suspension of deep decline next year
Zhang Bing, Marketing Director of Displaysearch in China, told this reporter that “China’s LCD panel purchase will begin to decline sharply from January to next month. After exiting home appliances and trade-in policies, the global market including mainland China will appear in the first half of next year. Growth stagnates or even declines, so overall the LCD panel industry is only warm and cold."
The European and American markets will resume their decline after Christmas sales, while Japanese LCD TVs have been experiencing significant negative growth this year. In November, their flat-panel TV shipments decreased by 84.3% year-on-year. The industry predicts that the negative growth of major markets in Europe, America and Japan will exceed 10% in 2012.
Under such circumstances, Sony, Sharp, Matsushita and other Japanese color TV manufacturers all forecast negative growth in shipments in 2012, of which Sharp's negative growth may exceed 14%, while Samsung and LG predict that the increase will fall back to less than 10%. Only China's six major brands of TV manufacturers have raised their respective shipping targets, mainly because China, India and other emerging markets will replace the European and American markets as the main growth point of LCD TVs.
This reporter learned that in the domestic brand Hisense, Hisense’s forecasted growth rate is also at a minimum of 14%, and Haier and Changhong are forecasting an increase of more than 35%, which also stimulated the appetite for major panel manufacturers to compete for Chinese customers. Chi Mei, Samsung, and LGD all predicted that In 2012, mainland panel shipments will increase by more than 20%.
However, both the panel makers and the machine manufacturers seem to be over-optimistic. Yang Dongwen told this reporter that “although emerging markets including China will definitely be the main growth point for LCD TVs in the next five years, because flat TV penetration rate in many places in these regions is less than 30%, and Europe and the United States are already close to 100%, but Excessive optimism in the global economic environment may lead to inventory losses."
Starting in September of this year, the outbreak of the domestic market was mainly related to the consumption boom before the policy was withdrawn. Coupled with the in-depth adjustment of the real estate market, and the fact that the affordable housing market was fully launched in 2013, the outlook for LCD TV growth in the first half of 2012 was not optimistic.
In the case of sluggish demand, the supply of the LCD panel market is continuously increasing, with the utilization rate of the major panel makers increasing to 8-90%, which means that the monthly production capacity will increase by one million units, and next year, In the first half of the year, after 3-4 high-level generation lines in China have reached half of their design capacity, they will increase their production capacity by nearly one million per month. This will cause the oversupply of LCD panels to reappear. In the first half of 2012, the domestic China Star Optoelectronics 8.5 Generation Line, BOE Eighth Generation Line and Nanjing Electric Panda 6th Generation Line will all be mass-produced.
Huaxing Optoelectronics CEO He Chengming stated that “in the year of 2012, Huaxing Optoelectronics will at least solve the 8 million pieces of TCL Multimedia's production capacity requirements.†The orders of Samsung Electronics, the largest TCL panel supplier, may drop by several million units. In this way, Samsung and other companies must adopt price reduction methods, so LCD panel prices may continue to decline from the first quarter of next year, and the industry-wide losses will continue.
According to the latest research report from market research agency DisplaySearch, after the panel purchase boom in the fourth quarter of 2011, the size of its purchase panel for domestic LCD TV giants that controlled 70% of the Chinese market in January 2012 will decline by more than 40%. The newly restored panel capacity utilization rate will also drop significantly.
Sun Dongwen, vice president of Skyworth Group, told this reporter on December 13th, “At present, it is very colorful electric manufacturers’ expectation for TV shipments in 2012 to increase by more than 20%. It seems to be overoptimistic in Skyworth’s view and Skyworth has already been doing winter. Prepared."
Temporary stabilization of panel prices
The growth of LCD TVs in the Chinese market, coupled with the opening of the US Christmas market, has enabled global brand LCD TV manufacturers to begin sourcing LCD panels from September this year. This also made LCD TV panel prices stabilize from late October. Taking the 32-inch LCD panel as an example, it began to remain stable after falling to the bottom of 122 US dollars in October of this year, and even in December, the price rose to around 128 US dollars.
According to Displaysearch research report, after Mainland TV manufacturers completed the preparation for the National Day Golden Week sales peak season in September, panel makers shipped 3.94 million pieces to mainland Chinese brand manufacturers in October, a decrease of 7% from September, and 11 On a monthly basis, there was a 24% increase from the previous month. In December, although there was a 5% drop from the previous month, the panel purchasing scale in the past four months has exceeded 40% of the full year.
On December 12, Skyworth Digital released its sales data for November. Its LCD TV shipments reached 769,500 units, of which the Chinese market increased by 12% year-on-year. TCL Group's November data also showed that its LCD TV shipments reached 1.145 million units, an increase of 75.67%.
In response, Yang Dongwen told this reporter that “In fact, the growth rate of the entire Chinese market has not been so great, but the three domestic brands such as Skyworth accounted for more than 45% of the market share. As a result of increased market concentration, it was under the influence of household appliances. With the impact of the withdrawal of township and old-for-new trade policies, many consumers chose to concentrate on buying TV in the fourth quarter, which also stimulated short-term consumption."
In the growth trend of the domestic color TV industry, this year, Samsung, Chi Mei, LGD, and AUO are actively adjusting their respective capacity utilization to win more orders. In the third quarter of this year, the utilization rate of Chi Mei and AUO fell to the bottom of 65%, and began to increase dramatically in September. Currently, Chimei's production rate has increased to 80%, and Samsung and LGD have increased to nearly 90%.
As the most important supplier of LCD panels in mainland China, Chi Mei not only occupied 31% of the centralized procurement of color TV manufacturers in October this year, but also increased its shipment target by 65% ​​in November this year.
Suspension of deep decline next year
Zhang Bing, Marketing Director of Displaysearch in China, told this reporter that “China’s LCD panel purchase will begin to decline sharply from January to next month. After exiting home appliances and trade-in policies, the global market including mainland China will appear in the first half of next year. Growth stagnates or even declines, so overall the LCD panel industry is only warm and cold."
The European and American markets will resume their decline after Christmas sales, while Japanese LCD TVs have been experiencing significant negative growth this year. In November, their flat-panel TV shipments decreased by 84.3% year-on-year. The industry predicts that the negative growth of major markets in Europe, America and Japan will exceed 10% in 2012.
Under such circumstances, Sony, Sharp, Matsushita and other Japanese color TV manufacturers all forecast negative growth in shipments in 2012, of which Sharp's negative growth may exceed 14%, while Samsung and LG predict that the increase will fall back to less than 10%. Only China's six major brands of TV manufacturers have raised their respective shipping targets, mainly because China, India and other emerging markets will replace the European and American markets as the main growth point of LCD TVs.
This reporter learned that in the domestic brand Hisense, Hisense’s forecasted growth rate is also at a minimum of 14%, and Haier and Changhong are forecasting an increase of more than 35%, which also stimulated the appetite for major panel manufacturers to compete for Chinese customers. Chi Mei, Samsung, and LGD all predicted that In 2012, mainland panel shipments will increase by more than 20%.
However, both the panel makers and the machine manufacturers seem to be over-optimistic. Yang Dongwen told this reporter that “although emerging markets including China will definitely be the main growth point for LCD TVs in the next five years, because flat TV penetration rate in many places in these regions is less than 30%, and Europe and the United States are already close to 100%, but Excessive optimism in the global economic environment may lead to inventory losses."
Starting in September of this year, the outbreak of the domestic market was mainly related to the consumption boom before the policy was withdrawn. Coupled with the in-depth adjustment of the real estate market, and the fact that the affordable housing market was fully launched in 2013, the outlook for LCD TV growth in the first half of 2012 was not optimistic.
In the case of sluggish demand, the supply of the LCD panel market is continuously increasing, with the utilization rate of the major panel makers increasing to 8-90%, which means that the monthly production capacity will increase by one million units, and next year, In the first half of the year, after 3-4 high-level generation lines in China have reached half of their design capacity, they will increase their production capacity by nearly one million per month. This will cause the oversupply of LCD panels to reappear. In the first half of 2012, the domestic China Star Optoelectronics 8.5 Generation Line, BOE Eighth Generation Line and Nanjing Electric Panda 6th Generation Line will all be mass-produced.
Huaxing Optoelectronics CEO He Chengming stated that “in the year of 2012, Huaxing Optoelectronics will at least solve the 8 million pieces of TCL Multimedia's production capacity requirements.†The orders of Samsung Electronics, the largest TCL panel supplier, may drop by several million units. In this way, Samsung and other companies must adopt price reduction methods, so LCD panel prices may continue to decline from the first quarter of next year, and the industry-wide losses will continue.
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