How far is China's new energy vehicle from being on the throne?

On the surface, China has become the world’s second largest automobile company, and everyone is very certain that China is expected to surpass the United States and become the world’s largest automotive country. It is precisely because of this that the trillion-dollar market has attracted various heroes to compete and the Chinese auto market has also witnessed more flowering prosperity this year.

According to incomplete statistics, when the Internet was blowing into the traditional automotive industry, more than 300 competitors were brought. In addition to the above four, there are singularities, the Yangtze River, the National Energy, and even the influx of emerging powers like the electric coffee car and BYTON.

In 2017, only about a dozen companies were introduced or put into mass production, such as Weilai Automobile, Weimar Automobile, Car and Home, Xiaopeng Automobile and so on.

Of course, there are also high-leap and low-lying LeTVs, even though Jiayue Ting has repeatedly said that there are still no physical explanations.

But this is only a superficial automobile. It is only a quantitative advantage. Under the prosperous credit, there are still many problems.

In 2017, the accumulative (terminal) sales of new energy vehicles totaled 735,000 units. With the increase of more than 200,000 vehicles in the whole year, it became the most eye-catching plate in the passenger car market in China. Compared to the previous 0.8 million units in 2011, the growth momentum of new energy vehicles is irresistible.

According to the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)" issued by the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the "Development Plan"), the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 5 million by 2020.

Although it is a high-growth market, in the entire automotive market, the 2017 new energy market accounted for only 2.7% of the market.

At the same time, the new energy vehicle market has an uneven development of the industry sector. The passenger car market is booming, while the commercial vehicle market continues to be sluggish. In 2017, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 74.4% of the total sales of new energy vehicles, while commercial vehicles were affected by policy regulations and other aspects.

In another, China’s new energy passenger car companies initially adopted the low-end, enterprise-integrated route at the outset, and the product structure had a “legless phenomenon”, that is, the product lines were mostly A00 and A0 models. The class cars are fresh and there are sights.

According to online data, the proportion of A-class car sales increased significantly in 2016. This degree is known as the "high-end trend of new energy passenger cars." This phenomenon was changed again in 2017. Last year, A00 class accounted for 67.4% of the sales of pure electric passenger cars. Such unbalanced product development is obviously difficult to meet for the ever-increasing market demand in the future. On the contrary, in the low-end market, it is prone to slow sales.

For the policy level, the official landing of the “double-integration” policy boots has become a nightmare for multinational car companies. Due to issues such as the layout of the product layout, it is almost impossible to complete the forward integration in a short period of time due to its own steering.

At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Foreign Investment Industry Guidance Catalogue (Revised in 2017)”, which “opens gates to release water” for the “joint venture” concept, and clearly stated that the same foreign company established a joint venture to produce pure electric vehicle vehicle products. Not limited to the number of joint ventures limited to two.

This move undoubtedly gave the multinationals a life-saving straw. We saw that on June 1, 2017, Daimler took a share in BAIC New Energy; on the same day, Volkswagen and Jianghuai signed an agreement to establish a joint venture company; on August 22nd, Ford took the hands of Zotye; on August 29, Renault-Nissan established a new joint venture with Dongfeng.

This seems to be a good signal for independent brands. Geely, BYD, BAIC, GAC, SAIC and other new energy pioneers can hold points and pedal technology and continue to make big strides forward. One body in advance to participate in the market competition Even the first one may enter the "harvest season." At least in terms of quantity, China has already had an absolute advantage in the field of new energy.

At the same time, in conjunction with the open-door and joint-venture policy, the number of joint ventures is more positive than the joint-venture models of independent companies, and it naturally supports and enhances the technology and platform.

Although the State Council's "Development Plan" gives market expectations of more than 5 million vehicles, at the same time, car companies are facing a government-led cultivation market is gradually coming to an end, and enterprise-led market cultivation will start. This change poses challenges to all aspects of corporate R&D strength and financial strength.

How to achieve a 7% growth within two years, and the production and product distribution matrix will become a topic for car companies to circumvent. At the same time, whether the after-effects of technological upgrading can compete with the underdeveloped multinational car companies has yet to be considered. After all, today's multinational car companies, short-term productivity, can only be balanced by sharing their own technology with Chinese partners. As the new energy product matrix of joint-venture car companies is basically concentrated in 2018 and 2019, the test of post-subsidy era has just begun for independent brands.

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