Triple play theme focuses on three main locks

The Tri-Network Convergence pilot project is expected to announce its results today after several revisions. Triple play further make the Internet, cable television and telecommunications networks, mutual penetration and integration in technology, content and regulation at three levels, ie, held each other's licensed to provide other services that may be provided, such as the integration of the listing The improvement of company performance brings new opportunities.

Everbright Securities stated that listed companies that choose to benefit from triple play should start with three main lines. The first is operators , including telecom operators and broadcasters. At present , telecom operators are actively preparing for triple play and are striving to promote the further development of 3G services ; SARFT is also strongly promoting internal integration. We expected in 2010-2012 and the provincial network operators integrate to form a unified national radio and television headquarters in 2013-2015. Radio and television operators already listed may become the main platform for integration. Followed by the network expansion and transformation. The digital transformation, integration, NGB construction, and telecommunication network construction of the Guangzhou Power Grid will bring a lot of demand for optical fiber, optical conversion equipment, and optical communication equipment ; the development of IPTV will bring demand for set-top boxes ; in addition, the main system integration and value-added services Companies such as telecommunications access will also benefit. The third is the field of content services. With the rise of IPTV , Internet TV and mobile TV , the demand for content will increase substantially , so content producers and providers will benefit significantly.

The newspaper analyzes and excavates from these three main lines and finds the most representative China Unicom , Gehua Cable and Zhongshi Media .

China Unicom

3G and wideband two-wheel drive

As the only telecom operator listed on the mainland stock exchanges, China Unicom , is undoubtedly one of the focus of this triple play. The company is also actively developing infrastructure, against the opportunities and challenges coming, the beginning of China Unicom, the total number of 3G base stations by the building, far behind the weak position of China Mobile, has rapidly developed into a total number of more than 300,000 base stations, and China Mobile is a comparable strong telecommunication operator.

The latest operating data also shows that China Unicom has a good development prospects. The company announced the development of business data in the period May 2010 Statistics: 2G users to reach a total number of 148 759 000, 763 000 net additions this month; 3G users to reach a total number of 6.528 million, 1.023 million net additions this month; local phone users to reach a total number of 101,127,000, net additions this month -51 million; the number of broadband subscribers to reach a total of 42.928 million, a net increase of the number 828,000 this month. China Investment Securities believes that China Unicom’s net increase in 3G subscribers and broadband subscribers exceeds that of China Mobile and China Telecom , and China Unicom is relatively successful in 3G and broadband operations . Such a good trend will continue in the future.

Unicom Group in January 7, 2009 to obtain third-generation WCDMA digital cellular mobile communications business license issued by the People's Republic of China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Industry approved, authorized Unicom Group held by subsidiary companies - China United Network Communications Co., Ltd. operates WCDMA third-generation digital cellular mobile communications services nationwide ; By the end of 2009 , 3G subscribers nationwide reached 2.742 million , of which , 448,000 were wireless network card users , and 3G users used 3.06 billion minutes of communication. The average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) was 141.7 yuan, 3G network covering 335 cities, the number of base stations to reach 107,000, 56,000 sets of indoor distribution system. As of the end of May 2010, the company's 2G users to reach a total number of 148,759,000, 3G users to reach a total number of 6.528 million.

China Unicom has many concepts topics, such as triple play concept, the concept of communication, the market concept, low-cost concept, the concept of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, 3G concept, the concept of margin trading, CSI 100 concepts. Despite so much involved in the concept of theme, China Unicom's share price was not among the range of high-priced stocks, only 5.21 yuan yesterday's closing price, from its record high price of 13.31 yuan a difference of 8.1 yuan.

CIC Securities stated that it predicts that the company's earnings per share for 2010-2011 will be 0.13 yuan and 0.2 yuan . It is expected that the company's performance after 2012 will quickly rise back to the level before 2007 , and will achieve a greater breakthrough in 3G ; according to 2 times the net The rate of the company's valuation of 6.7 yuan , corresponding to the PE value of 2011 is 33 times (taking into account the company's performance in the past two years , the value of high value-earnings ratio is also reasonable) , continue to maintain the recommended investment rating.

Gehua Cable

Received 294 million yuan HD interactive set-top box subsidies

Gehua Wired is the concept of cable network, the concept of resource monopoly. The Beijing Municipal People's Government approved the company to be responsible for the construction, management and operation of the city's cable radio and television network , and to be the only company approved by the Beijing Municipal Government to construct, operate and manage the city's cable radio and television network.

In January 2010 , it received a special subsidy for high-definition television set-top boxes worth 126 million yuan , which was recorded in the “ deferred income ” subject , amortized according to the estimated service life of high-definition interactive set-top boxes for 5 years , and amortized 25.2 million yuan in 2010 , which is expected to increase the profit in 2010. A total of 25.2 million yuan ; May 2010 Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance plans to release the first batch of special government grants in 2010 , 200 million yuan , specifically for the promotion of high-definition interactive digital TV project in Beijing , this section directly to pay the Gehua cable company , and remember Entered " Special Payables " ; in June 2010 , it received 294 million yuan of HD interactive set-top box grants , which were recorded in the " Deferred Income " subject , amortized over five years, and amortized in 2010 for 34.3 million yuan , which is expected to increase in 2010 . Total profit of 34.3 million yuan.

Guosen Securities believes that the Gehua Cable has obtained the subsidy for high-definition interactive set-top box of the Beijing Municipal Government . The matter itself is in line with expectations , but the subsidy point and amplitude exceed expectations. Although the subsidies are in line with expectations. However, it exceeded the expected 11.1% . According to the previous assumptions , the price of high-definition interactive set-top boxes fell by 10% in 2010 , namely 1080 yuan / set , and this subsidy was still calculated according to 1200 yuan / set in 2009 , making the total amount of subsidies 420 million yuan , exceeding expectations 3.11 billion yuan, 11.1% .

Again , the time is 7 months ahead of schedule. Before assuming that subsidies paid in 2011, and began amortization from January 2011, and the company in June 2010 to get 70% subsidy payments, amortization point ahead of seven months. Because the rate of subsidy was higher than previous estimates , the subsidy time was advanced by 7 months , making the subsidy income confirmed in 2010 increase by 34.3 million yuan , and increase the earnings per share by 0.03 yuan , a rate of 10.7% . Because the subsidy is a one-time payment , the impact on the value of the company is less than the impact on the earnings per share.

Guoxin Securities will 2010-2011 earnings per share adjusted to 0.34 yuan and 0.34 yuan, raised margin of 10.7% and 2.4%, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price earnings ratio of 49 times, 48 times, to maintain "prudent recommendation" investment Rating.

Hong Yuan Securities is expected to follow during the year there will be issued a special government subsidy funds, changes in the company's management, but also beneficial to the company to get more government support. Secondly, the actual controller replacement for the Beijing Radio and Television, with the triple play of the east, is expected to build a new station gateway system-wide media layout, format there is room for expansion. Further, the convertible bonds issued during the year, is expected to release more positive.

Zhongshi Media

Benefit from the development of CCTV's industrialization

One of the major impacts of triple play is the diversification of video transmission channels. In the past, televisions were the main carrier for the dissemination of video information . Television stations only needed to capture the sight of television viewers as much as possible. With the implementation of triple play , the audience can obtain video information through cable networks, the Internet, IPTV and mobile phones , and the transmission terminal will gradually spread from televisions to computers, mobile phones, outdoor screens, and building televisions . The network platform will become these video transmissions. The main content carrier of channels , network television will become the mainstream platform for video transmission.

Rapid rise of online video in China, has attracted the attention of State and Government. In order to seize the commanding heights of online video , and to give play to the country’s mainstream intelligence in the online video field , traditional television media such as CCTV have entered the online video field.

The main focus of CCTV's internal reforms in 2009 was the revision and improvement of ratings . In 2010 , CCTV focused its efforts on market-oriented reforms and industrial layout. CCTV has already carried out market-oriented reform and integration of TV drama production resources and new media business . Taking into account the funding needs and the demonstration effect of Huayi Brothers , it is expected that the docking with the capital market should be the focus of the next step in the CCTV industrialization reform. Galaxy Securities believes that the visual media as CCTV's only capital platform, will benefit from the industrial development of CCTV.

In the past industrial environment , CCTV as a monopoly platform did not have operational pressure and the demand for the capital market was very small . With the rise of new media and the diversification of transmission channels brought about by the triple play , CCTV must go through industrialization. Developed to maintain its status as a mainstream media and increase ratings. Industrialization will inevitably bring about an increase in the demand for funds . For example, the network video industry in which China’s national network television station is located has huge demand for funds. Visual media as CCTV's only listed company, will increasingly be supported by CCTV's attention and policy level.

China Vision Media achieved operating income of 1.35 billion yuan in 2009 , an increase of 36.4%, net profit of 114 million yuan , an increase of 111.1%, EPS of 0.484 yuan , consistent with the previous performance report. The profit distribution plan is to pay 1 yuan for every 10 shares. In the fourth quarter, the single-quarter revenue was 600 million yuan , a year-on-year increase of 126% , a year-on-year increase of 157%, and a net profit of 80.6 million yuan , a year-on-year increase of 288% and an increase of 61.2 times. There are two main reasons for the abnormal growth of income and net profit : First, the revenues of most television programs and TV dramas are settled at the end of the year ; second, the advertising industry has also seen a recovery in the second half of the year.

Television Media 2009 earnings per share of 0.484, the advertising business contributed 0.335 yuan, accounting for 70% of film and television production business contributed 0.048 yuan, tourism business contributed 0.097 yuan. Although there has been a huge rebound in advertising gross profit margin in 2009 , it is not the result that CCTV intends to support. The main reason is that the gross profit margin of the advertising agency business was only 7.6% in the first half of the year , and CCTV did not sign an advertising agency cost agreement until September . A more reasonable explanation is that the advertising agency costs for the whole year were locked in the third quarter , and the recovery of advertising in the fourth quarter exceeded the expectation. Secondly , comparing Zhongshi Media ’s revenue from film and television production, related-party transactions increased by 66% in 2009 , while non-related transactions increased by 105%. The company’s production of excellent quality works is the key. The characteristics of the advertising agency agency cost for one year determine the rising cost in 2010 is a high probability event.

Guosen Securities predicts that the earnings per share of Zhongshi Media for 2010-2012 will be 0.35 yuan, 0.37 yuan and 0.40 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current price earnings ratio, respectively 64 times, 60 times and 56 times. Valuation is not cheap. However, according to the most optimistic agency cost assumption , EPS will reach 0.65 yuan per share in 2010 , when the 2010 P/E ratio will fall to 34 times , and the “ carefully recommended ” investment rating will be maintained.