IResearch recently released data on the growth of “online video†(hereafter referred to as “videoâ€) in 2014, with a large dish of 23.9 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of 76.4%. The results are not gratifying.
However, this growth may enjoy more of the industry's own property dividends. At this stage of the video industry, it may still be regarded as a stage in the air.
However, if you look at the factors at the entrepreneurial level and carefully study it, this judgment is not without it.
The performance of iQiyi has not changed for three to four years since its establishment. Potatoes before the acquisition, after normal development in 1978, have never established their own industrial advantages. In the whole Wang Wei era, we could not think that the potato made a fundamental breakthrough in the video industry. As for Youku after the acquisition of potatoes, once the industry leader, in 2013 this short period of time, will be greatly shortened.
The status quo and characteristics of this industry are more like those of the emerging industries. It is not like the internet industry that has already matured in the past ten years. Therefore, it is worth considering how the video industry is currently at a stage of development and whether it is entering adulthood as we think it is.
Audience migration, part of the community migration
One phenomenon: Since the development of the video industry to this day, Top players who have already gone for the first seven or eight years still cannot see any sense of security. Latecomers still seem to have the opportunity to turn their heads. In addition to the limited changes in the industry itself, it also shows that the development of industrial value is also very limited.
This can be seen as follows: After the video industry experienced a five- or six-year development, Iqiyi was able to rely on the promotion of capital and still be able to come from behind. However, the reason why potatoes have been cultivating for a long time has not been given the real advantage. Therefore, the qualitative change of the video industry has not really appeared until today. And those changes that are relished may not be as great as we thought.
If we consider the development of the video industry in the business ecosystem where the social consumer lives today, it may be clear that the power of the development of the video industry really comes from.
The mainstream view is that the basis for optimism in the video industry is that television audiences continue to migrate to video sites on a large scale. Of course, the market outlook for the video industry is optimistic, but there are problems with this basis.
A more accurate description is that the entertainment life of consumers is indeed shifting from reality to the network on a large scale. This shift does not mean that consumers go directly to the video. What really attracts consumers to migrate is the more and more mature online business ecosystem and the relevant supporting facilities suitable for online sojourning.
For example, the purpose of buying a house is not limited to living but focuses on daily life. Therefore, the consideration of surrounding mature facilities is an important factor. Therefore, it is the surrounding commercial ecology and related facilities that are suitable for daily life that really allow consumers to make decisions on buying a house. This is the root of the occupancy rate.
Considering the current role of the video industry, the reason why it has gradually become a mainstream choice for audio-visual consumption is to rely on the maturity of the entire online entertainment business ecosystem. As the entire network of entertainment attributes and community attributes become stronger, social communication, business, entertainment, and life have begun to migrate to the Internet. The transfer of audiovisual consumption from television to online video is only a concrete manifestation of the entire social life in the process of large-scale migration to the Internet. It is the part that is flooded by the flood.
Therefore, the main driving force for the development of the video industry may come from the huge potential energy given by the historical trend of transition, not limited to itself. On the other hand, users are gradually detaching from this form of television consumption, but also is the entire "old business district" is losing its appeal, compared to online, the consequences of the relative loss of the entire offline consumer ecosystem is increasingly serious. Considering these factors, although the current achievements of the video industry are gratifying, it is necessary to understand that the dominant force behind the achievements is not only the video itself.
Moreover, as a result of the overall transition of society and the emergence and proliferation of new values ​​brought about by this transition, consumers are beginning to have new consumer demands for audiovisual content. However, the video industry currently has no convincing results on the effective reform of the entire audiovisual industry. The consumption of content by users, including the consumption forms, the operations behind the content, and the entire content industry, is basically indistinguishable from the original television model.
Looking further, we can also think that the main thrust of the video industry's current growth comes from the network's reform of the social shape and social structure. This is also the main reason for the relatively limited revenue of the current video, which is insufficient to support the development of the video industry itself. Because of its own potential has not yet been in-depth excavation.
For example, UGC, self-made, and related commercial technologies that originally belonged to the video industry’s own advantages, although promising, are still in an accumulation stage, resulting in the realization of traffic, mainly in the advertising business of imitating television models, and the deepening of traffic value, currently Seeing is actually relatively limited.
Therefore, individuals are more willing to think that the networking of the human community lives, at least for the video industry, is a huge outlet. And the video industry should not completely count on the results of borrowing Dongfeng.
Video industry still belongs to the distortion of traditional TV business
Traditional businesses have been accustomed to offline drainage. For example, the selection of store locations, dealer selections, and traditional media advertising are all examples of this logic. However, in the face of a large-scale migration of effective traffic to the line, changes have to be made, and traffic diversion operations gradually shift from offline to online.
In this situation, traditional enterprises began to learn and are keen on e-commerce, social marketing, content distribution, micro-film, viral video, and other online operations. They also belong to the specific tactics of online infusion. This is a pragmatic and convenient way. Strategy. Of course, this is also the most obvious place in the process of the Internetization of the entire traditional business at the present stage, that is, the change in the way the business end-users are exposed to users.
Therefore, the current changes in the so-called Internet market for traditional businesses are actually reflected in the changes in the terminal diversion operations. However, the entire front-to-to-middle phase of the entire business, including procurement, manufacturing, and labor, can also be regarded as changing. So far, this change is not an essential one. Basically, it still stays in the offline production according to the original production model, and then the stage of online distribution of some products.
The change brought about by the so-called "Internet thinking" to traditional businesses is now basically misinterpreted as a change in the "traffic diversion work". This is also the source of the delusionalization of Internet thinking.
Of course, based on the changes in diversion operations, it has been determined that a breakthrough has been made in the traditional business model, and it is obviously not convincing. However, this simple change is also effective because the advantage over the traditional offline business is that it is closer to the effective traffic, which brings about changes in the diversion operation of traditional businesses.
And this kind of logic is equally effective on video.
Compared with television, the core advantage of video at this stage is that, as one of the destinations for effective traffic migration, it is the center of online audiovisual consumption. Rather than content, talent, and management (not limited to the domestic market), including funds and industry models, there is no fundamental difference from the traditional TV stations that are currently seeking change.
The current "video mode" can still be regarded as a replica of the "TV mode" in nature, and it is close to the simple online of "traditional television", and it also tends to be closer to the network-end TV business.
Therefore, compared to traditional commerce, video is not what Internet pioneering power is. It is actually similar to the current Internetization of traditional commerce. It can be regarded as part of the traditional business power that can be transferred to the Internet. It can also be viewed as It is the result of a simple change in the TV station's adaptation to traffic migration.
Therefore, this is also the reason why Hunan Satellite TV, which uses television models to produce mango TVs, can also achieve high performance.
From this point of view, the video industry at this stage cannot be regarded as a breakthrough product of the Internet era, because the distance from effective traffic is even closer, and only better development opportunities are obtained. This is also a patch (equivalent to a hard and wide variant of television). ) Can become an effective way to cash out, but TV is hard and wide but it gradually declines.
For television, the current industry barriers to video are not as insurmountable as they were supposed to be. At the same time, relying on the increasingly mature ecological effects of the online community, the reason why the traffic generated by it is “effective†is because of the stickiness of consumption brought about by the gradual maturity of the online business community.
For example, once it was necessary to go out for daily activities such as shopping and entertainment, along with the maturity of e-commerce, games, and audio-visual entertainment, it is now possible to settle at home. Most of the community life that once required time and space cost support can be unified. When the block screen is completed, as a user individual, because of the convenience and good experience, it will be more willing to try any new business that is replacing the off-screen consumption activities provided in this screen.
When the main social life is concentrated on a screen, video is a potential substitute for TV consumption. It is not incomprehensible for users to choose video instead of TV. Even so, it does not mean that video is more advantageous than TV. It can only be said that the video industry enjoys the natural dividend brought by the Internet environment, rather than the video itself has made breakthroughs in the industry.
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