Renewed passion for new energy: The revised "Renewable Energy Law" and "New Energy Industry Development Plan" rekindled the domestic green energy passion. The expansion of overseas installations has stimulated the development of policies to guide photovoltaic power generation into a period of rapid development.
Industrial chain structure: From the top to the bottom of the industrial chain, the technological content gradually decreases, the number of enterprises, the intensity of competition increase, and the gross profit rate declines. However, with the release of polysilicon production capacity and the expansion of global installed capacity, the value-added gap at each link is narrowing, and the industry chain is gradually moving towards a more even profit. At present, the photovoltaic industry does not yet have its own vitality. The development of the industry depends mainly on the cost reduction under technological breakthroughs and the expansion of demand under policy support.
Technological breakthroughs lead to a drop in power generation costs: Under the conditions of policies, technologies, and raw material prices in 2010, the average post-tax power generation cost is approximately 1.26 yuan/KWh; under vertical integration conditions, the cost of power generation can be reduced to 1.1 yuan/KWh; In Xinjiang and Gansu, the cost of electricity generation in light-rich areas is about 0.71 yuan/KWh. The minimum tender price for 13 photovoltaic power generation projects in August 2010 was 0.7288 yuan, which is not “irrationalâ€.
Stimulus policies drive expansion of installed capacity: Affected by the last subsidy effect of subsidies in European markets such as Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic, the global installed capacity in 2010 is expected to exceed 12.7 GWp. At present, policies of various countries in the world tend to increase the scope of subsidies, but the depth of subsidies has been reduced, which has provided a huge export expansion space for China's solar cell and module industries, and also raised higher cost control requirements. The domestic installed market has also been gradually promoted by the “Golden Sun Demonstration Project†and the “New Energy Industry Development Planâ€.
Investment risk: The photovoltaic industry is affected by policies, technologies, economy, exchange rate and other factors, and the volatility is relatively large. Enterprises are faced with changes in policy orientation, relative changes in the status of photovoltaic technologies, changes in the economic form of the government's fiscal gains and losses, foreign exchange fluctuations and other risks.
Investment advice: Companies with vertically integrated industries can increase profit margins and prevent single-link risks from adjustment of the industrial chain; the market is still dominated by crystalline silicon technology in the short-term, and companies involved in multi-technology have better wind-breaking capabilities and growth. space.
Company recommendation: Focus on CSG A, Tianwei Baoji, Yinxing Energy, aerospace, Haitong Group and other companies with higher levels of industrial integration, and will have greater future in the future.
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