Aluminum prices fall passively, weak and difficult to change

Spot market: On March 11, Shanghai's mainstream transactions were 12,690-13,700 yuan/ton, discounted price was 270 yuan/ton to discounted price of 260 yuan/ton, Wuxi's mainstream transactions were 12,700-12,710 yuan/ton, and Hangzhou mainstream transactions were 12,710-12,720 yuan/year. t, aluminum rebounded slightly after the fall, triggering demand-side access to goods psychology, the market inquiry increased, but the goods are still cautious mood, the purchase increase is limited, some holders have the price will, today's low-price transactions slightly it is good. In the afternoon, Shanghai Aluminum rebounded and the center of gravity continued to rise. The seller reluctantly sold its goods and raised its offer to reach 12,730 yuan/ton, but received goods at high prices.

Market trends

1, spot: March 11 (Tuesday), the Yangtze River spot market A00 aluminum fell 30 yuan / ton, the lowest reported 12,720 yuan / ton, the highest reported 12,760 yuan / ton, the middle price of 12,740 yuan / ton. Guangdong spot offer A00 aluminum fell 10 yuan / ton, the lowest reported 12,690 yuan / ton, the highest reported 12,790 yuan / ton, the middle price of 12,740 yuan / ton.

2. Bloomberg News on March 10, according to data released by the Brazilian Aluminum Association on Monday, the country’s aluminum production in January fell 9.3% year-on-year to 104,800 tons.

3. The report “2013 Economic Operations of Nonferrous Metals Industry” released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently showed that in 2013, China’s non-ferrous metals industry continued to show steady and positive growth momentum under the grim domestic and international economic situation, and the development mode was constantly changing. The report also pointed out that China's economic fundamentals are still relatively good this year, and the environment supporting the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry will be further improved. This year's industry operation will be slightly better than 2013, but it will not change much.

Analysis of the board: On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main 1406 contract opened lower and rallied, lightening up and downsizing and rebounding, but the top still faces the suppression of the moving average. From a macro perspective, the U.S. data will stimulate the U.S. dollar to rise, which will continue to trigger the risk of U.S. dollar returns. The U.S. dollar rise will drive up global capital costs and increase the risk of financing aluminum and hidden inventory outflows. Ukrainian tensions have caused turmoil in financial markets. After China’s debt defaults and rigid payments have been broken, the credit bond market may usher in the butterfly effect. In terms of fundamentals, China’s imports of bulk commodities surged in February. Imports of aluminum and aluminum that had not been forged in February reached 205,000 tons, a surge of 78.8%. Domestic aluminum production remained at a high level. At the same time, imports of aluminum surged and downstream consumption remained relatively unchanged. Weakening, the current oversupply of aluminum has intensified, causing aluminum prices to continue to hit new lows. However, the overnight copper price plummeted and the aluminum price fell passively. The short-term weakness is hard to change.